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Stock Forecast Backtest
Backtest Summary
Cumulative return comparison for the iQuery MC-weighted portfolio against major indices.
Quarterly cumulative returns
Quarter date
iQuery MC-weighted
Dow Jones
NASDAQ Composite
S&P 500
2023-06-01
13.3%
3.4%
12.8%
8.3%
2023-09-01
14%
0.7%
8.2%
4.3%
2023-12-01
31.8%
13.3%
22.8%
16.1%
2024-03-01
50.9%
19.6%
34%
27.9%
2024-06-01
66.1%
17.6%
45.1%
32.9%
2024-09-01
76.1%
27.2%
48.8%
40.2%
2024-12-01
97.3%
27.9%
58%
43.1%
2025-03-01
78.9%
26.2%
41.5%
36.6%
2025-06-01
111.7%
32.5%
66.7%
51%
2025-09-01
144.4%
39.4%
85.4%
62.8%
2025-12-01
154.7%
44.4%
90.2%
66.6%
2026-03-01
166.3%
39.3%
76.7%
58.9%
Performance summary
iQuery outperformed every benchmark across the full period
The iQuery MC-weighted stock forecast portfolio substantially outperformed all three major indices across the full period shown, from 2023-06-01 through 2026-03-01.
Latest cumulative returns
Index / Strategy
Return
iQuery MC-weighted
166.3%
NASDAQ Composite
76.7%
S&P 500
58.9%
Dow Jones
39.3%
iQuery advantage
Comparison
Advantage
vs. NASDAQ Composite
+89.6 pts
vs. S&P 500
+107.4 pts
vs. Dow Jones
+127.0 pts
In relative terms, the iQuery cumulative return was roughly 2.2× the NASDAQ Composite, 2.8× the S&P 500, and 4.2× the Dow Jones over the analyzed period.
A key takeaway is that iQuery led the major indices in every quarter shown, and recovered strongly after its pullback around 2025-03-01, moving from 78.9% cumulative return to 166.3% by 2026-03-01.
Bottom line
The iQuery MC-weighted forecast portfolio delivered a meaningfully stronger return profile than the major indices across the full period, with particularly strong relative performance in the latest quarter. The most recent quarter stands out because iQuery posted a positive gain while the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 all declined, widening iQuery’s performance gap versus every benchmark.